EUROCHAMBRES Economic Survey 2015

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EUROCHAMBRES Economic Survey 2015

Table of contents Foreword............................................................................................................................... 3 Executive Summary .............................................................................................................. 5 Challenges to business confidence ....................................................................................... 6 Trading within and beyond the EU ........................................................................................ 9 Employment Creation.......................................................................................................... 11 Sales and investment .......................................................................................................... 13 Appendix ............................................................................................................................. 17 Methodology .................................................................................................................... 17 Questionnaire .................................................................................................................. 26 Countries participating in survey ...................................................................................... 28

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2

EUROCHAMBRES Economic Survey 2015

Foreword The deep gloom of the 2008-13 period is thankfully

less

apparent

in

EUROCHAMBRES Economic Survey (EES) 2015, the 22nd edition of this annual assessment community’s

of

European

expectations

for

business the

year

ahead. Nonetheless, the feedback indicates that Europe is not yet out of the woods and that the recovery remains slow. Perennial problems, such as high labour costs, low investor

confidence

and

financing conditions, remain

unfavourable in

several

economies. At the same time, geopolitical tensions with EU trading partners and ongoing obstacles to buying and selling within the EU seem to be turning businesses back towards their national markets, a worrying trend in this era of digital and global opportunities.

Several of the EES indicators are of course inextricably linked: investment will not improve unless sales increase and employment will not rise without more investment. Europe’s recovery will be restricted unless policy makers act swiftly, decisively and coherently to address this negative ‘chicken and egg’ pattern.

The recent announcement of the European Commission’s Investment Plan for Europe could therefore not be timelier. It is an encouraging signal of the new Commission’s intent and EUROCHAMBRES welcomes the investment stimulation philosophy that underpins it. National governments must be similarly ambitious and innovative in the measures they take to strengthen business confidence, facilitate access to finance, dynamize labour markets, stimulate investment and provide market opportunities. 3

EUROCHAMBRES Economic Survey 2015

EES2015 is a clarion call to leading policy makers for the new EU term to provide the business community with the framework conditions that it requires to drive Europe’s economic recovery. I can assure you that EUROCHAMBRES and the Chamber network will be doing their utmost to ensure that this call is heard clearly and acted upon.

Dr Richard Weber President of EUROCHAMBRES

4

EUROCHAMBRES Economic Survey 2015

Executive Summary The EUROCHAMBRES Economic Survey (EES) 2015, based on responses from over 60,000 European businesses, indicates a sluggish economic recovery in most of the 261 countries participating in the survey.

All economic indicators show a clear improvement in outcomes during 2014, but apart from domestic demand and employment, the majority of indicators for 2015 slowdown in their rate of growth. 

The upturn in business confidence of 2014 continues for 2015, but levels vary hugely, with the Iberian peninsula most buoyant while German businesses offer a much gloomier forecast.



Exports in 2015 are expected to increase but at a slower pace than in recent years, given the heightened geopolitical tensions and the uncertain global environment. Greece and Turkey stand apart from the rest, registering the greatest expected increase.



Domestic sales and employment show encouraging signs of recovery. Portugal is the most optimistic, seemingly anticipating a positive impact from the reform programme.



Businesses identify domestic demand, foreign demand and economic policy conditions as the hardest challenges to cope with. Access to finance remains a major concern for business sector’s growth, contributing to the stagnation of investment expectations.

As ever, the results vary considerably across countries, but, being overall in line with the recent European Commission forecasts2, they paint a picture of modest growth.

1

For a complete list of participating countries is consult the Appendix European Economic Forecast, Autumn 2014 http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications/european_economy/2014/pdf/ee7_en.pdf 2

5

EUROCHAMBRES Economic Survey 2015

Challenges to business confidence Challenges ahead Respondents to EUROCHAMBRES Economic Survey (EES) 2015 were asked to identify up to three challenges respectively faced during 2014 and that they anticipate as being the most significant in 2015.3

Domestic demand remains constrained and far from the pre-crisis level and needs further support, as reflected in its prominence among the challenges identified in EES2015, both for 2014 and 2015.4

Many report difficulties in coping with general economic policy conditions. This confirms that, apart from specific issues that create challenges for individual businesses in particular sectors or areas of activity, entrenched economic obstacles to productivity and competitiveness remain.

Two other persistent issues of concern for businesses- financing conditions and labour costsfeature strongly among the challenges for the year ahead. Addressing these challenges

3

Respondents were asked to select up to 3 from a list of 8 challenges, without ranking their selection. The list of 8 challenges can be seen in the EES2015 questionnaire in the Appendix 4 Graphs of the ‘challenges’ question are available in the Appendix

6

EUROCHAMBRES Economic Survey 2015

effectively will be a key factor in the new EU leadership’s ability to steer Europe towards recovery.

Business Confidence The EUROCHAMBRES Economic Survey business confidence indicator5 captures respondents’ general sentiment about their prospects for the year ahead, reflecting their level of optimism. EES2015 reveals that business confidence for the year ahead remains roughly at the same level of 2014. This result is in line with the European Commission’s estimations and reflects an overall decline in business confidence in the second semester of 2014.

Business Confidence in EU 40

120

30

115 10.57

10

110 105 100

0

95

-10

90

-20

85

-30

80

-40

75

-50

Index (unit=100)

Weighted index

20

70 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Business Confidence

2012

2013

2014

2015

Economic Sentiment Indicator

Source: Economic Sentiment Indicator, European Commission. Business Confidence, EUROCHAMBRES

Concerns over both domestic demand and trading conditions, fuelled notably by RussiaUkraine tensions, along with frustrations at the pace of structural reforms and uncertainty about global growth, contribute to the levelling out in business confidence. Perennial constraints, such as high labour costs and difficulties in accessing credit or other forms of

5

Indicates how optimistic or pessimistic businesses are for the coming year, effectively giving a sense of what the general feeling of businesses in the participating countries will be is for 2015

7

EUROCHAMBRES Economic Survey 2015

financing, should also be factored into the business community’s fairly cautious outlook for 2015.

Business Confidence and Real GDP Growth in EU 40

4 2

Weighted index

20 10.57

10

7.39

0

-10

0 -2

-20 -30

-4

real GDP growth rate

30

-40 -50 2005 2006 2007 2008 Business Confidence Forecast

-6 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Business Confidence Outcome GDP growth (EU 28)

Source: Real GDP growth rate, volume, percentage year-on -year change, year 2015- forecast, EUROSTAT. Business Confidence Index, EUROCHAMBRES

The picture varies considerably between countries: Portugal and Spain, economies which have undertaken ambitious reform programmes, displayed a significant increase in business confidence, while extremely low inflation and concerns relating to tensions with Russia have led to a much gloomier prognosis by German businesses. 

After a surprisingly subdued performance during 2014, Germany has revised further downward their expectation for 2015, dropping approximately five-fold, from 31 to 6.



The most optimistic businesses can be found in Montenegro, with an index of 55.5, while the most pessimistic are in Austria, with a descending indicator of -40.7, and Slovakia, with an index of -34.4.



Austria and Slovakia have been consistently pessimistic in the previous three years, displaying the lowest variation over time between forecasted and realised values. The average index for the period 2012-2015 is respectively equal to -34.2 and -43. Conversely, Turkey has been the most optimistic over the medium term, registering the highest average of 38.8 during the period 2012-2015.

Overall, although still above the levels recorded at the peak of the crisis, this deceleration in the improvement of business confidence is a cause for concern.

8

EUROCHAMBRES Economic Survey 2015

Trading within and beyond the EU Export sales 6

30

in

confirming

20

expectations. This growth

10

2014,

has mainly been driven by

Index

Exports steadily increased

-10

countries, whereas in the

-20

Euro Area, export sales

-30

remained

and

roughly

22.88

0

candidate

non-Euro

25.82

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

stable

EES average

EURO area

from 2013.

For 2015, conversely to recent years when trade was the beacon of hope, European businesses are relatively cautious about export Box 1: Voice of entrepreneurs

sales.

Businesses are still hindered by the many remaining barriers to the EU single market, despite its theoretical completion over 20 years ago. They are now also increasingly concerned

During the European Parliament of Entrepreneurs,

European

businesses clearly expressed their wish to move towards a more integrated EU single market and a

about the impact of the complex geo-political

stronger

situation in some of the EU’s neighbouring

Diplomacy on the global stage.

European

Economic

countries, the EU-Russia trade sanctions and embargos, as well as contracting global growth prospects, all of which is holding back export projections for next year.

6

Demonstrates businesses' expectations regarding the growth or decrease in sales beyond the national border, whether that is within the EU single market or towards third countries

9

EUROCHAMBRES Economic Survey 2015



After a fall in exports in 2014, Hungarian businesses expect a further contraction in 2015.





Greece7 expects a sharp surge in export

Box 2: Did you know that…

After

6

years

of

economic

sales, with an index increase from 11.5

recession, Greece seems to be

to 36.5, finally revealing early signs of an

turning the corner. Available data

economic upturn.

indicates

Portugal and Spain improved their export

balance will be positive. However,

performance

while exports of goods, sustained by

during

2014:

Portugal

increased its index by 27%, reaching 65 points, its highest since 2005, and Spain by 60%, achieving an index of 59. These positive performances corroborate the recent

surge

in

optimism

the

that

euro’s

exceeded exports

the

trade

depreciation, the

of

2014

pre-crisis

services

have levels,

are

still

subdued, 25% below the pre-crisis level.

about

prospects for the Spanish and Portuguese economies, which seem to be starting to feel the benefits of several years of extensive reforms.

7

Data from OECD international trade database http://data.oecd.org/trade/trade-in-services.htm#indicator-chart

10

EUROCHAMBRES Economic Survey 2015

Employment creation High unemployment is one of the most striking and damaging legacies of the crisis. While remaining a major socio-economic challenge, employment levels8 among EES respondents picked up during 2014 in all of the surveyed countries and this positive trend is set to continue in 2015.

After a fall in 2013, the indicator performed much better than expected in 2014, climbing from -9.1 to 2.7. For 2015, firms have revised their expectations upwards, with a positive index of 7.1 across the EES. Nonetheless, the level of improvement anticipated is tentative. Elsewhere in the EES, labour costs are identified among the key challenges for the year ahead. This area clearly remains a priority for reforms if minor improvements in employment levels are to accelerate significantly.

20

2

15

1.5

10

5.21

1

5

0.5

0

0

-5

-0.5

-10

-1

-15

-1.5

-20

Growth rate

Weighted index

Employment Forecast, Outcome and Employment Growth

-2 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Employment Forecasts

Employment Outcome

Employment growth

Source: Annual percentage change in total employment population EUROSTAT. Labour Index, EUROCHAMBRES

8

Indicates whether businesses plan to employ more or less people than in the current year

11

EUROCHAMBRES Economic Survey 2015

Indeed, given low levels of business confidence, high unemployment, especially amongst young

Box 3: Voice of entrepreneurs

generations, remains a concern and a priority for most countries. The fragile rebound in the

During the European Parliament of

labour market is uneven, with unemployment forecasts

diminishing

overall,

but

Enterprises, businesses called for

varying

stronger

considerably across countries.

EU

engagement

in

enhancing skills and training of workers: 99% of voters expressed



Estonia9 confirms its long term positive

their support for reforms to work-

performance, with an employment index

based

of 18.9 in 2014 and 30 in 2015. Apart

supported

learning; the

93%

of

creation

them of

a

European mobility programme for

from a dramatic slump in 2009 due to

job seekers.

the crisis, Estonia stands out for its consistent and above average employment figures. 

Southern European countries such as Spain and Portugal show increasing signs of recovery. The employment index for Spanish

firms

surpassing

its

improved pre-crisis

markedly, level

and Since the early 90s, Estonia has

reaching a peak in 2014 of 14 points. Portuguese

business

outcomes

made the digital agenda one of its

were

main priority, building an efficient

above expectations for 2014 and the 2015



Box 4: Did you know that…

system

of

e-government

and

index is 34.5. Given the rigidity of their

pursuing

labour markets, much effort still needs to

policies. Today, its hi-tech sector

be done, as recent growth is not yet

counts for more than 15% of GDP; it

making up for the weak recovery.

is global leader in number of start-

Greece’s labour market is still struggling

ups per person, developing a highly

and

concentrated cluster of globally-

EES2015

provides

no

oriented start-ups.

encouragement: the index has been constantly

below

zero

since

2009

technology-oriented

and

forecasts for 2015 at -1.7 are set to maintain this worrying pattern.

9

Box 4: Data on come from World Bank's Entrepreneurship Survey and database http://econ.worldbank.org/research/entrepreneurship

12

EUROCHAMBRES Economic Survey 2015

Sales and investment Domestic demand Although still far below levels,

witnessed revival

a in

Domestic sales

2014 modest

domestic

10

sales . After four years of negative outlook, 2014 domestic sales increased on average by 16 points

Index

pre-crisis

40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40

10.6 6.3

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

and a further rise of 25%

EES average

EURO area

is predicted for 2015. In the Euro area, the index performed better, jumping from -27.3 in 2013 to -0.6 in 2014, while in 2015 it is expected to increase further to 6.3.

However, sales to domestic purchasers, which provide a measure of underlying demand, are still depressed in much of Europe, so even taking into account these optimistic increases, there

remains

considerable

scope

Box 5: Did you know that…

for

improvement.

There

All countries expect an increase in private

recovery

consumption, even if moderate, and private

projected to benefit the most from

investment. This should boost domestic sales and

have

a

positive

knock-on

effect

on

are in

signs Spain.

of

economic SMEs

are

improved availability of credit. Many initiatives in this area are supported by the Chamber network, such as

investment.

the project Aprende a financiarte, which targets companies in need of



Greece is the only country in which

funds providing support and help.

domestic demand is set to remain

10

Shows businesses' predictions regarding growth or decrease in sales of their products within the national borders

13

EUROCHAMBRES Economic Survey 2015

subdued, reflecting the country’s still unsteady path out of the crisis. In 2014 domestic sales recovered somewhat, slightly improving to -5.6 point, but they are expected to lose ground again in 2015 and fall to the 2013 level of -30.6. 

In the Baltic States, domestic demand is helping to ensure growth and both the 2014 outcome and 2015 forecasts are above the EES average.



As with several other EES2015 indicators, domestic sales improvements indicate economic recovery in Portugal and Spain as the deep structural adjustment starts to bear fruit. Portugal expects a big surge in sales next year, while Spain has posted the greatest increase among all large Eurozone countries, with a rise in the index from 30 in 2013 to 14 in 2014.

Given the importance of domestic demand to boost economic growth, these optimistic figures are sources of encouragement. Nonetheless, it must be remembered that these improvements are based on a historically low starting point of 2012 and 2013. This, together with the fact that domestic sales are also identified in the survey as a potential challenge for 2015, demonstrate that policy makers must make a concerted effort in the year ahead to stimulate demand across Europe and to give solid foundations to the internal market.

14

EUROCHAMBRES Economic Survey 2015

Investment Investment

Investment

levels

30

depend on domestic demand

20

and

10

are also affected by a number of other factors,

Index

domestic sales, but

8.02 5.47

0 -10

notably -20

access to finance and

the

general

economic

outlook.

-30 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 EES average

EURO area

Businesses’ positive investment expectations for 2014 were met according to EES2015: investment levels 7.86 reached the highest value since 2007. However, it seems that this momentum may not be maintained in 2015 as businesses expect a similar level of investment for the year ahead: still higher than for the post-crisis period as a whole, but below the level needed for a robust economic recovery.

Investments are likely to suffer from the businesses’ limited ability to acquire bank loans. Banks are not yet loosening their credit standards despite the accommodating monetary policy of the European Central Bank. As underlined in responses to the EES question on challenges during the previous year, severe financing conditions undermined the business community’s recovery in 2014.

Low levels of investment restrict firms’ productivity and competitiveness, which in turn has a negative effect on the internal market, currently characterised by weak levels of demand. The contraction in investment has to be seen as the primary reason for the weak recovery: as shown by the EES results, the predicted figure for 2015 is still more than 10 points lower than its pre-crisis level.

15

EUROCHAMBRES Economic Survey 2015

Business expectations for investment for 2015 vary greatly between countries. 

The Baltic States have registered a consistently positive outlook since 2012, always meeting their expectations: their internal market is strengthening, as the data on domestic sales and private consumption corroborate. Since 2005, they have historically recorded above-average levels of investment, dipping dramatically only in 2009 before rapidly returning to a high trend.



Candidate countries (Turkey, Montenegro, Serbia) also performed quite well in recent years, as they did not suffer directly from the same challenges as Euro area businesses, such as protracted mediocre growth and persistently low inflation.

Regulatory uncertainties, along with banks’ effort to deleverage their balance-sheets ahead of the AQR and the ECB stress tests, mean that European businesses continue to encounter a

Box 6: Voice of entrepreneurs

At

the

October

2014

European

Parliament of Enterprises results,

dramatic shortfall in options from a stubbornly

75% of businesses registered that

fragmented European financial market.

access to finance has become more difficult due to increased regulatory

The micro perspective described by private

costs for the banking sector.

businesses and the macro one presented by policy makers describe the same phenomenon through two different lenses: as long as financing solutions remain unavailable to the private sector, the level of investment required to drive a more sustained and robust recovery will be out of reach.

16

EUROCHAMBRES Economic Survey 2015

Appendix Methodology About the Survey

EUROCHAMBRES Economic Survey (EES) is an annual qualitative survey of business expectations in Europe. The survey is implemented by the Chambers of Commerce and Industry and co-ordinated by EUROCHAMBRES and is now in its 22nd year. It is based on a harmonised questionnaire sent to business owner-managers from EU member states as well as to EU candidate countries: Serbia, Turkey and Montenegro. The questionnaire focuses on five economic indicators: business confidence, domestic sales, exports, employment and investment and also includes two questions on challenges. For EES2015, over 60 000 businesses responded during early autumn 2014. Data has been aggregated at national level and weighted according to the respective 2013 GDP to obtain EU estimates.

Implementation

Chambers of Commerce and Industry in Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Finland, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Montenegro, the Netherlands, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Serbia and Turkey have posed companies a set of 12 questions on their past and future expectations. Business owner-managers were asked to give a comparative response, i.e. “better than the previous year”, “the same as the previous year” or “worse than the previous year” to two questions per indicator: one on the outcomes of 2014 as compared to the previous year, and one on expectations for 2015. Responses from entrepreneurs were collected and aggregated at national level according to official regional GDP. At European level, results were weighted according to national GDP. Weighted averages were used to guarantee representativity by size and region.

17

EUROCHAMBRES Economic Survey 2015

Results are a balance figure, obtained by deducting the percentage of companies giving a negative response from the percentage of companies giving a positive response, thereby obtaining the 'net positive response'. Analysis of the results was based on input from national Chambers, as well as on various external sources.

In the case of Finland, an alternative methodology was followed: rather than questionnaires being sent to businesses, they were answered by Chambers of Commerce and Industry at regional level, and then aggregated at national level according to regional GDPs. Answers were based on Chamber analysis and conclusions regarding the outcomes in 2014 and 2015 expectations for businesses.

Results for the Netherlands are provided following a slightly different procedure: businesses were asked about their sentiments for 3Q 2014, which were then treated as proxy for 2014 annual data.

18

EUROCHAMBRES Economic Survey 2015

Tables Figure 1: EUROCHAMBRES Economic Survey results on Challenges

Challenges for 2014 Economic policy conditions

Domestic demand

Financing conditions Foreign demand

Prices of energy and raw materials Exchange rates

Labour costs Lack of skilled workers

Shares are calculated as % of the total number of respondents

Challenges for 2015

Economic policy conditions

Domestic demand

Financing conditions

Foreign demand

Prices of energy and raw materials Labour costs Exchange rates

Lack of skilled workers

19

Shares are calculated as % of the total number of respondents

EUROCHAMBRES Economic Survey 2015

Figure 2: EUROCHAMBRES Economic Survey results over the years 2005-2015

Index of Business Confidence (weighted average)

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

-30

-40 2005

2006

2007

Business confidence

2008

2009

2010

Domestic sales

2011

Export sales

20

2012 Employment

2013

2014

Investment

2015

EUROCHAMBRES Economic Survey 2015

Figure 3: Business confidence per country (2013-2015)

70

50

Index (weighted average)

30

10

-10

-30

-50

-70

-5.3 -20.5 27.0 -47.1 30.4 -23.2 28.0

42.0 -28.1 13.9

0.0

EES Avera ge -11.0 -27.7 21.4 -33.9 -58.3 -34.9 -30.0 39.0 -2.5

2014 -40.7 -2.3

5.7

-30.2 -16.3 27.3 -34.5 -61.9 31.0 -47.1 -13.9 -12.8 51.5

26.9 -20.2 11.8

55.5

-1.9 -13.5 12.1 -11.1 -34.4 -16.5 12.0

39.0

7.4

2015 -37.9

19.5

24.8

60.6 -20.2 23.3

44.2

0.0

36.0

10.6

AT

BE

BG

HR

CY

CZ

2013 -31.2 -0.2 -10.9 -34.8 -62.8 -9.5 9.7

6.5

EE

FI

20.9 -20.1 -0.2

DE

6.0

EL

HU

-12.4 -11.4

IT

3.3

LV

20.0

21

LT

LU

MT

ME

NL

PT

62.6

RO

32.7

RS

SK

SI

ES

46.7 -23.0 -18.7 38.0

TR

EUROCHAMBRES Economic Survey 2015

Figure 4: Export sales per country (2013-2015)

100

80

Index (weighted average)

60

40

20

0

-20

-40

-60 AT

BE

BG

HR

CY

CZ

EE

FI

DE

EL

2013

2.9

10.0

19.1 -15.6 -7.8

3.1

2014

5.8

11.5

10.8

-7.7

5.5

10.5

17.3 -14.3

0.0

17.4

23.0

2015 -6.5

25.2

38.9

15.4

16.7

-1.0

38.4 -53.9 15.0

85.7

LU

MT

ME

NL

PT

RO

RS

SK

SI

ES

31.8

0.5

13.8

0.0

3.1

51.9

16.8

7.6

26.2

14.9

37.0

EES Avera ge 29.0 20.4

15.3

10.6

-0.6 -50.0

6.6

17.4

-3.8

9.1

26.2

44.9

44.0

41.0

24.4

32.3

12.4

19.0

18.3

65.9

17.7

52.3

31.1

49.4

59.0

34.0

25.8

HU

IT

LV

LT

11.5

7.6

25.0

60.0

11.5

-9.2

26.4

27.3

36.7 -17.0 40.9

54.5

22

-3.8

TR

EUROCHAMBRES Economic Survey 2015

Figure 5: Employment per country (2013-2015)

60

Index (weighted average)

40

20

0

-20

-40

-60 AT

BE

BG

HR

CY

CZ

2013 -6.1

-0.5

2.3

-2.6 -56.5 -7.2

2014 -6.7

8.9

4.8

-5.4

-0.1

9.3

2015 -27.6 11.5

18.1

9.3

0.0

4.0

EE

FI

DE

EL

HU

14.4 -30.8

0.0

-19.6

0.0

-22.1 -15.0 18.5

18.9 -55.8

4.0

-19.6

0.0

-13.7 24.2

1.6

30.0

2.0

-1.7 -11.0 -9.5

8.0

6.3

-4.7

IT

LV

33.3

23

LT

LU

MT

ME

NL

PT

7.1

5.3

0.0

10.1

16.2

3.8

1.8

7.0

17.5

42.3

1.7

34.5

17.2

-12.9 -15.5

RO

RS

0.3

3.8

34.0

6.7 11.1

SI

ES

TR

0.0

EES Avera ge -16.4 -20.0 34.0 -9.1

-3.3

32.6

14.0

36.0

2.8

3.3

8.1

22.0

40.0

5.2

SK

EUROCHAMBRES Economic Survey 2015

Figure 6: Investment per country (2013-2015)

60

Index (weighted average)

40

20

0

-20

-40

-60 AT

BE

BG

HR

CY

CZ

EE

FI

DE

EL

HU

IT

LV

2013 -14.6

3.9

-0.4 -13.6 -53.9 -10.3 17.3 -10.3

0.0

-12.5 16.3 -12.1 29.0

2014 -16.2

5.3

11.6 -14.3 -19.0

3.9

13.0

48.7

8.0

-12.5 -3.6

25.2

5.8

27.1 -55.4

8.0

2015 -24.3 12.5

23.8

-3.8

0.1

-13.9

LT

LU

MT

ME

NL

PT

RO

RS

EES Avera ge 22.6 -31.8 -16.0 28.0 -3.5 SK

SI

ES

TR

29.1

3.4

24.5

0.0

-7.8

4.8

8.8

8.8

5.4

51.5

21.6

7.5

29.8

38.1

6.1

10.5

2.0

24.4

4.9

23.2

8.0

25.0

7.9

7.6

36.4

27.9

7.9

32.5

53.1

5.8

45.0

29.3

9.1

27.9

34.8

10.0

26.0

8.0

24

EUROCHAMBRES Economic Survey 2015

Figure 7: Domestic sales per country (2013-2015)

80

60

Index (weighted average)

40

20

0

-20

-40

-60

-80

2013 -11.2

1.8

2.4

1.9

-72.5 -23.0

22.1

-26.8 -30.3

36.5

-38.3 -58.0

34.6

6.0

2.5

0.0

-28.9

-2.9

9.9

21.4

-36.9 -30.0

EES Avera ge 50.0 -13.5

2014 -15.2

8.8

-4.4

-10.5

-0.3

11.0

18.0

-14.2

-5.6

-3.9

-13.6

48.5

34.2

11.5

-3.3

25.0

5.3

22.1

22.2

19.7

25.9

14.0

44.0

3.0

2015 -19.2

20.8

9.8

23.8

0.0

5.3

23.3

45.8

-30.3 -17.0

-2.8

60.6

35.1

13.3

13.6

34.6

67.8

39.7

57.8

9.8

15.0

37.0

47.0

10.6

AT

BE

BG

HR

CY

CZ

EE

FI

EL

HU

IT

LV

25

LT

LU

MT

ME

PT

RO

RS

SK

SI

ES

TR

EUROCHAMBRES Economic Survey 2015

Questionnaire

CHALLENGES

LABOUR

Q.1 Compared with 2013, the biggest

Q.7 Compared with 2013, the size of our

challenge(s) for the economic development

workforce in 2014 has:

of our company in 2014 was (max. 3

  

answers possible):

        Q.2

Domestic demand

Increased Remained constant Decreased

Foreign demand Labour costs Lack of skilled workers Exchange rates Price of energy and raw materials Financing conditions Economic policy conditions

We

expect

that

the

biggest

Q.8 We expect that during 2015 the size of

challenge(s) for the economic development

our workforce will:

of our company in 2015 will be (max. 3

  

answers possible):

       

Domestic demand Foreign demand Labour costs Lack of skilled workers Exchange rates Price of energy and raw materials Financing conditions Economic policy conditions

26

Increase Remain constant Decrease

EUROCHAMBRES Economic Survey 2015

NATIONAL SALES

INVESTMENT

Q.3 Compared with 2013, our revenue

Q.9 Compared with 2013, our level of

from national sales in 2014 has:

investments in 2014 has:

  

  

Increased Remained constant Decreased

Increased Remained constant Decreased

Q.4 We expect that our revenue from

Q.10 We expect that during 2015 our level

national sales in 2015 will:

of investments will:

  

  

Increase Remain constant Decrease

Increase Remain constant Decrease

EXPORT SALES

BUSINESS CONFIDENCE

Q.5 Compared with 2013, our revenue

Q.11

from export sales in 2014 has:

developments for our business in 2014

Compared

with

2013,

overall

were:

  

Increased

  

Remained constant Decreased

Favourable Remained constant Unfavourable

Q.6 We expect that our revenue from

Q.12 We expect that during 2015, overall

export sales in 2015 will:

developments for our business will be:

  

  

Increase Remain constant Decrease

27

Favourable Remain constant Unfavourable

EUROCHAMBRES Economic Survey 2015

Abbreviations for countries participating in survey Abbreviations (EU countries arranged in alphabetical order) AT

Austria

BE

Belgium

BG

Bulgaria

HR

Croatia

CY

Cyprus

CZ

Czech Republic

EE

Estonia

FI

Finland

DE

Germany

EL

Greece

HU

Hungary

IE

Ireland

IT

Italy

LV

Latvia

LT

Lithuania

LU

Luxembourg

MT

Malta

ME

Montenegro

NL

Netherlands

PT

Portugal

RO

Romania

SK

Slovakia

SI

Slovenia

ES

Spain

RS

Serbia

TR

Turkey

28

EUROCHAMBRES Economic Survey 2015

Participating Chambers of Commerce and Industry Austria Austrian Federal Economic Chamber Christoph Haushofer, (+43) 05 90 900 4280 [email protected] Claudia Huber [email protected]

Belgium Federation of Belgian Chambers of Commerce Antonio Giromini, (+32) 02 209 0552 [email protected] Bulgaria Bulgarian Chamber of Commerce and Industry Olga Chugunska, (+35) 92 8117 411 [email protected]

Croatia Croatian Chamber of Economy Dubravka Zubak [email protected], [email protected] Jasna Belošević Matić, (+38) 50 148 28373 [email protected] Cyprus Cyprus Chamber of Commerce and Industry Leonidas Paschalides, (+35) 72 288 9840 [email protected]

29

EUROCHAMBRES Economic Survey 2015

Czech Republic Czech Chamber of Commerce Petr Valenta, (+42) 02 667 21417 [email protected] Estonia Estonian Chamber of Commerce and Industry Marko Udras, (+37) 2 604 0060 [email protected]

Finland Finland Chamber of Commerce Anne Hatanpää, (+35) 8 9 4242 6261 [email protected] Germany Association of German Chambers of Industry and Commerce Dirk Schlotböller, (+49) 030 20308 1504 [email protected]

Greece Union of Hellenic Chambers of Commerce Vassilis Apostolopoulos, (+30) 2103387104-6 [email protected] Hungary Hungarian Chamber of Commerce and Industry Agnes Mako, (+36) 12 35 0584 [email protected]

30

EUROCHAMBRES Economic Survey 2015

Italy Union of Italian Chambers of Commerce, Industry, Craft and Agriculture Domenico Mauriello, (+39) 06 470 4513 [email protected] Ilaria Cingottini [email protected] Latvia Latvian Chamber of Commerce and Industry Elīna Bičevska

[email protected] Janis Butkevics [email protected]

Lithuania Association of Lithuanian Chambers of Commerce, Industry and Crafts Asta Cekelyte, (+370) 5 261 21 02 [email protected]

Luxembourg Chamber of Commerce of the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg Christel Chatelain, (+35) 242 39 39 358 [email protected]

Malta Malta Chamber of Commerce, Enterprise and Industry Andre Fenech, (+35) 622 032 312 [email protected]

31

EUROCHAMBRES Economic Survey 2015

Montenegro Chamber of Economy of Montenegro Ksenija Dukanović (+382) 20 231 006 [email protected] Tanja Radusinović [email protected] Netherlands Netherlands Chamber of Commerce Ivo de Jong, (+31) 651 594 445 [email protected] Portugal Portuguese Chamber of Commerce and Industry João Paes Cabral, (+351) 21 322 4050 [email protected]

Romania Chamber of Commerce and Industry of Romania Petru Russu [email protected] Petru Saca [email protected] Slovakia Slovak Chamber of Commerce and Industry Katarína Hvizdošová, +421 2 54433846

[email protected]

32

EUROCHAMBRES Economic Survey 2015

Slovenia Chamber of Commerce and Industry of Slovenia Alenka Avberšek [email protected] Bojan Ivanc [email protected] Spain Chamber of Commerce of Spain Manuel Valero, (+34) 91 590 69 00

[email protected] Serbia Chamber of Commerce and Industry of Serbia Snezana Raseta, (+38) 111 3248 349 [email protected] Dragana Camagic [email protected]

Turkey Union of Chambers and Commodity Exchanges of Turkey Cagri Gurgur, (+90) 312 218 2610 [email protected]

Thank you also for their valuable comments to

33

EUROCHAMBRES Economic Survey 2015

EES2015 Editorial Committee Ben Butters (EUROCHAMBRES) Elisa Facchetti (EUROCHAMBRES) Iwona Mertin (EUROCHAMBRES) Dirk Schlotböller (Association of German Chambers of Industry and Commerce)

Recommended links EUROCHAMBRES Economic Survey 2015 Infographic European Parliament of Enterprises

34

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